Central Bank Two Weeks Net Return Of Funds Over 100 Billion

Dongguan Bank Chen Long, a financial market analyst, said: "the capital market began to become nervous on Wednesday. The upward trend of capital prices was mainly influenced by many factors. One is the transfer of Finance and taxation, the other is the withdrawal of funds from the central bank's open market, and the three is the expiration of treasury cash, and the previous SLF (the central bank's standing loan facility) has not yet expired."

China's currency network announced on Thursday (October 24th) the same day Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor), the results show that overnight varieties rose 30.8BP to 4.088%, 1W varieties rose 68.8BP to 4.68%, 2W varieties rose 101.1BP to 4.882%, 1M varieties rose 58.6BP to 5.4%.

By 12:40, the overnight weighted average interest rate of the Bank of China (601988 shares) was 4.0916%, up by nearly 30bp from the previous day, 3.8005% on the daily report, and 4.7009% on the 7 day, up 60 basis points yesterday, compared with 4.0495% on the previous day.

Despite the upward trend in the price of capital, the central bank still keeps tightening liquidity in the open market. In this regard, Guotai Junan analyst Chen Lei pointed out that the central bank's actions to tighten liquidity from the reverse repurchase contraction to the suspension operation are expected to bring tighter liquidity to the market. It is expected that the capital market tension is only temporary, and the current market interest rate is tolerated by the central bank. Unless the situation of capital price rises sharply in June, the central bank will not easily release liquidity and tighten policy will not change easily.

Chen Lei pointed out that there are many factors to support it. Central Bank Tightening monetary policy. From the perspective of external liquidity, the current foreign exchange has been restored. It is estimated that the new foreign exchange reserve will remain at the level of September in the next two months, providing an important support for the domestic market liquidity.

The central bank announced this Monday. data At the end of 9, the foreign exchange balance of financial institutions was 27 trillion and 517 billion 954 million yuan, representing an increase of 126 billion 362 million yuan over the 27 trillion and 391 billion 592 million yuan at the end of 8, a 5 month high.

At the same time, the sustained recovery of domestic macroeconomic situation and the acceleration of inflation also provide policy space for the central bank to tighten up. Chen Lei said: "today's HSBC PMI and three quarter economic data show that the macroeconomic recovery is in good shape, and there is no possibility of an economic downturn. In terms of inflation, the CPI in September is higher than market expectations, indicating that inflation is accelerating, so the central bank will not easily relax liquidity. "

The PMI preview value of China's manufacturing industry released on October was 50.9 (50.2 in September), hitting a 7 month high in HSBC on Thursday. In October, the manufacturing output index was 51 (50.2 in September), hitting a 6 month high.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in October 18th, GDP in the third quarter increased by 7.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate rebounded 0.3 percentage points over the two quarter.

In addition, in accordance with past practice, near the end of the year, the Treasury Department will shift the treasury funds deposited in the central bank to commercial banks and turn to deposits for consumption or expenditure, which will also increase liquidity for the market.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, has also predicted that the fiscal reserves will reach 1 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter of this year, and liquidity will constitute strong support.

Central bank policy tightening attitude remains unchanged, and whether it will restart the repurchase to return liquidity has become the focus of the market. Traders said that these two days of tight funds, are looking forward to the central bank can reverse buy back, so the short term restart repo may have been reduced.

Shenyin Wanguo said in its research report 23 that the open market will not expire after next week. If the central bank should continue to tighten liquidity, the probability of reintroduction of the repo or even the central bank will be increased. Fine tuning policy has become a reality that the four quarter had to face.

According to the great wisdom (601519, stock bar) news agency statistics, as of the end of 2013, the open market has no positive reverse repurchase expires, and the central bank will have only 17 billion yuan to expire.

The central bank's last repurchase operation dates back to June 6th this year, when the central bank carried out a 10 billion yuan 28 day repurchase in the open market, winning the bid rate of 2.75%.