The Performance Of Both Internal And External Markets Is Poor.

At present, the international macro situation is becoming increasingly grim. The export market of China's textile and garment industry is sluggish, and various unstable and uncertain factors interweave, accelerating the domestic textile enterprises to face the situation of survival of the fittest and industrial adjustment. In the case of increased pressure from inside and outside markets, the textile industry will face many difficulties in the second half of the year.

Export pressure has increased. Big domestic market is not booming.

Figure 12017-2019 China's exports of textiles and clothing in July

According to my agricultural product network, in July, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to 27 billion 520 million US dollars, an increase of 2.5%, of which 10 billion 770 million US dollars in textile exports, an increase of 6.2%, clothing exports 16 billion 750 million US dollars, an increase of 0.3%. Meanwhile, in 1-7 months, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 151 billion 740 million US dollars, down 1.5%. Although there was a slight increase in exports of textiles and clothing in July, the overall trend continued to decline.

Meanwhile, in the first half of this year, China's fabric exports amounted to US $29 billion 350 million, an increase of 2%. The export of cotton cloth was 6 billion 350 million US dollars, a decrease of 7.4%, and the export of chemical fiber woven fabrics was US $11 billion 210 million, an increase of 7.1%, accounting for 38.2%, which led to the overall growth of fabric exports. This reflects the gradual increase in demand for cotton substitutes and the decline in cotton consumption in the future. Coupled with the weakening of the international economic recovery and the rising risk of economic and trade disputes, the mentality of the textile and garment market is on the brink of collapse. China's clothing export pressure will continue to increase in the second half of this year.

Figure 22016-2019 retail sales of textiles and clothing above quota in July

From the chart, we can see that since 2019, the retail sales of China's textile and clothing are basically at the lowest level in the past 4 years, and sales in the second half of the year will still be less than the same period in the past. The retail sales in July were 93 billion 410 million yuan, down 2.8% from the same period last year. China's textile and clothing market continues to be in a state of depression. The main reasons are as follows:

1, the progress of international economic and trade consultations is not as good as expected, and the situation is more severe. The confidence of market participants has been frustrated, and the export market has been a drag on the development of the domestic market to a certain extent.

2, although online retail sales are quite substantial, physical shops are not performing well, and the phenomenon of shutting down is frequent.

3, the finished product inventory of clothing brand is serious, and the purchase intention is not strong in the second half of the year.

4, the price fluctuation of cotton and PTA is large, and the loss of small and medium-sized fabric mills is serious.

5, the domestic market frequently throws goods, the cloth price is chaotic, the low price shipment has become normal, and some weaving factories have limited funds, unable to bear the pressure of throwing goods, so stop production and reduce risk.

6, dyeing, electricity and labor costs under the pressure of three high cost, weaving mill profit is meager.

Poor demand for terminal stocks continued high

Fig. 32019 inventory turnover days of China's brand textile and apparel home textile enterprises last year

Fig. 42019 inventory turnover rate of China's brand textile and apparel home textile enterprises last year

As shown in Figure 3, in the first half of 2019, the turnover days of textile and garment enterprises in China were generally high, and the total inventory days reached 250.44 days, 28.8 days higher than the same period last year. Among them, Bailong Oriental is a listed company of colored spun yarn, with the highest turnover days, up to 375.51 days, far higher than the same type of Ru Tai textile. At the same time, in apparel and home textile enterprises, rente and fuanna are 284.13 days and 257.75 days respectively. From the data, we can know that the stock of brand enterprises is still huge, and supply exceeds demand on the market will be a long process.

Figure 4 reflects the situation of inventory turnover of some textile and garment enterprises, and the inventory turnover rate is one of the important indicators for the analysis of the operation capacity of enterprises. It reflects the turnover speed of inventory, that is, the liquidity of inventory and whether the amount of stock capital is reasonable. The higher inventory turnover rate indicates that the stronger the liquidity of the enterprise's inventory assets, the faster the capital turnover of inventory and occupancy will be. From the 2019 China Daily, we can see that the overall inventory turnover rate of China's brand textile and apparel home textile enterprises is 1.06 times, 0.17 times lower than that of the same period last year, of which Lining inventory turnover rate is the highest 2.45 times, significantly higher than that of the same period last year.

According to my analysis of agricultural products network, no matter from inventory turnover days or inventory turnover rate, it is not as good as the first half of 2018, and the stock market will continue to maintain in the second half of the year. From the perspective of the whole market structure, the domestic and foreign markets are not performing well. Under the interference of international macro factors, we expect the "golden nine silver ten" to become invalid.